Egypt

[rm]

"UPDATE 35, 4:30 p.m. EST: Al Jazeera reports that top regime and NDP party officials are leaving Egypt on private jets. No word on Mubarak. Also, the Speaker of the Egyptian parliament is supposed to release a statement soon. It remains to be seen whether that will actually happen. It's now nearly midnight in Egypt."


I think we can assume that the Mubarak regime in Egypt has fallen.

I actually called Patty at 3am last night to tell her what was going on (she's fine, she's in India, she just has no news flow there).


ETA: Mubarak has said (in a pre-recorded speech, so we don't know when it happened or where he is) he will appoint new ministers tomorrow and has reaffirmed his government's response to the protests. Out of touch doesn't begin to cover it.

ETA2: Obama had 30 minute call with Mubarak, is taking him at his word re: reforms, is speaking now seemingly to reaffirm US support of Mubarak, although this is probably the "hedging our bets" dance, although I'm not quite grokking our poker in all this right about now because I really don't think Mubarak can hold on. Tanks in the main square in Cairo now, chasing out protesters, who are still all over the side streets in defiance of curfew and have formed human chain around museum to save from looting.

ETA3: I've seen reports of protests in Jordan and now a self-immolation in Saudi Arabia (these are being watched across the Arab world, because a suicide like this (Muhammad Bouazizi) is credited with starting the Tunisia uprisings) -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12260465

ETA4: Can anyone verify reports of net shutdown in Syria?

Comments

[heron61.livejournal.com]

That is indeed excellent news for the Egyptian people. Now comes the difficult question of what comes next.

[rm.livejournal.com]

Yeah, right now what fills the void there is very unclear.

There's also a question of what happens in the rest of North Africa and the Middle East. This process may be far from done.

[thatwordgrrl.livejournal.com]

Is Patty OK?

[rm.livejournal.com]

Yeah, she's in India, so she's fine, she's just totally isolated there from any news at all (and 3am here, was lunch time there for her). I'm really, really grateful she's not in the Middle East this winter. And I'm not sure who of her colleagues may be (although at least two of her close archaeology friends are also in India). But she's spent a lot of time in the Mideast and really loves it there, so she was definitely wanting to know.

[thatwordgrrl.livejournal.com]

I am not usually a big believer in the domino theory, as there invariably tends to be other forces at play.

But this does make a body wonder.

If it can happen in one of the more progressive countries like Egypt...

[rm.livejournal.com]

Yeah. Yemen and Algeria seem to be the ones next most likely to be affected, but I've also heard noise, amazingly, about Jordan.

[thatwordgrrl.livejournal.com]

Neither Yemen nor Algeria surprise me.

But Jordan? Wow, about as Westernized as Egypt.

[frenchpresser.livejournal.com]

Holy crap.

[heron61.livejournal.com]

Indeed.

While I doubt this would happen, what I'd most like to see is the Saudi regime fall to popular protest. The world would be a considerably better (and safer) place without House of Saud in power. Of course, that's also one of the only nations in that area that I can see the US sending aid to help keep them in power. I'd like to think better of Obama than that, but I don't.

[cozzene.livejournal.com]

The live feed on Aljazzera is pretty incredible. The NDP building is completely engulfed in flames and it appeared no one was attempting to put it out.

[rm.livejournal.com]

Yeah, because the army is, apparently, working to try to prevent the museum next door from catching on fire instead!

[cozzene.livejournal.com]

*no sarcasm* I'm glad they have their priorities in order. I'd rather save the history than a symbol like the NDP.

[xtricks.livejournal.com]

What's the army's position? They're pretty respected in Egypt and don't seem to be cracking down on either side, from what I can tell. Though putting put the fire at the museum is a good thing in my book.

[rm.livejournal.com]

That's exactly what seems to be going on. They're very much taking a wait and see, and have stayed out of the violence enough that despite Mubarak ordering them in, there are reports that they have been cheered by protesters when they have arrived at several main protest points.

[xtricks.livejournal.com]

That's a *really* interesting choice to make. By not getting involved, they're probably keeping the violence level down a bit, actually.

I think the think I fear now is a new government that is culturally and socially regressive. I don't care if they want to hold hands with the US or not but ... I'd prefer not to see another mid-east country end up with a fundamentalist islamic government.

[redstapler.livejournal.com]

I don't care if they want to hold hands with the US or not but ... I'd prefer not to see another mid-east country end up with a fundamentalist islamic government.

This x1000.

That is my hope as well.

Obama speech OTW...

[cozzene.livejournal.com]

according to Aljazerra

[fightingwords.livejournal.com]

Mubarak says he's not going anywhere but has forced the government to resign.

[fightingwords.livejournal.com]

Just saw your edit.

[xtricks.livejournal.com]

Tanks in the main square in Cairo now ...

Hm. I'm begining to doubt that Mubarak will be ousted now. I think these sorts of uprisings happen very quickly or not at all, and once the heavy artiliry shows up, whoever has control of them is likely to win out.

[rm.livejournal.com]

It's also 3 in the fucking morning there, so it's like... if that's the only time you can get the square? But I agree with you, these things happen FAST. It happens tomorrow or it doesn't happen.

[rm.livejournal.com]

follow up on tanks in Cairo:

BBC Arabic Reporter in Tahreer square now says Protesters & Army in complete harmony, chatting, eating & laughing together #Jan25 #Egypt

[fobok.livejournal.com]

Yep. I've been watching CNN all morning and the army seems to be protecting the protesters more than anything. (Though they're staying out of the conflict between protesters and the police at the Interior Ministry, which is being described as the last holdout for the police.)

I've even seen one shot of a whole bunch of protesters standing on top of an APC.