Obama's win percentage on fivethirtyeight.com is up to 98.9%. McCain's slice of the statistical probability pie is now so low there's no room to put any red into the graphic design.
I've been depending a bit too much on Nate Silver to talk me (and last night, my mother) down the past few weeks, I hope to God his projections are even halfway correct.
His projections are entirely correct based on the data and logical based on his attempts to compensate for it. The problem is this election is so aberrant compared to the elections our polling habits were developed for, he could be totally wrong.
That said, if you want my assessment based on the data I have (which is totally not related to actual voter polling response but historical on how voters respond to media factors we track) and what I saw going on in the primaries:
I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
And the Bradley effect? Nope. If anything there's going to be a reverse Bradley effect in play in historically red states that may flip. That's what reality vs. the exit polls in the primaries seemed to indicate.
I'm not worried about a Bradley effect, it's just there are so many wild cards in this election I don't know what I should expect. But given there's already an anti-Bradley effect at work in Mary's own (white, rural, southern) family, I'm hopeful for a a few red state flips and breaking 300 in the EC.
You were right! Wikipedia cites a possible reverse Bradley Effect for Obama! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Effect#Barack_Obama_and_a_possible_reverse_Bradley_effect) (was there to look up what a Bradley Effect was ;))
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no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:52 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:54 pm (UTC)I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
And the Bradley effect? Nope. If anything there's going to be a reverse Bradley effect in play in historically red states that may flip. That's what reality vs. the exit polls in the primaries seemed to indicate.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:57 pm (UTC)reverse Bradley effect
Date: 2008-11-04 06:06 pm (UTC)Tiny heads will explode before this day is done.
Re: reverse Bradley effect
Date: 2008-11-04 06:25 pm (UTC)I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
Date: 2008-11-04 06:07 pm (UTC)Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
Date: 2008-11-04 06:08 pm (UTC)Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
Date: 2008-11-04 06:19 pm (UTC)*scurries back*
Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.
Date: 2008-11-04 06:51 pm (UTC)The Morning After:
Date: 2008-11-05 07:37 am (UTC)364, if the still undecided states fall as expected.
For reference, Clinton got 370 in 1992 and GWB got 271 in 2000.
I guessed 349 a week ago.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:50 pm (UTC)Though on the latter, the cynical side of me sees it as an attempt to disuade voter turnout, even in a small way, which would likely foavor McRage.
no subject
Date: 2008-11-05 01:29 am (UTC)*head explodes*
no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 05:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 06:40 pm (UTC)*resists temptation to crack "make the pie higher" jokes*
*fails*
no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 07:14 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-04 11:13 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-11-05 05:27 am (UTC)