(no subject)

[rm]

Obama's win percentage on fivethirtyeight.com is up to 98.9%. McCain's slice of the statistical probability pie is now so low there's no room to put any red into the graphic design.

Comments

[violetisblue.livejournal.com]

I've been depending a bit too much on Nate Silver to talk me (and last night, my mother) down the past few weeks, I hope to God his projections are even halfway correct.

[roy-batty.livejournal.com]

Ad Karl Rove totally called a landslide for Obama . . . so he's got that going for him.

Though on the latter, the cynical side of me sees it as an attempt to disuade voter turnout, even in a small way, which would likely foavor McRage.

[a-hollow-year.livejournal.com]

Wake me up when McCain's percentage is the same percent as earmarks are in the federal budget.

[rm.livejournal.com]

His projections are entirely correct based on the data and logical based on his attempts to compensate for it. The problem is this election is so aberrant compared to the elections our polling habits were developed for, he could be totally wrong.

[violetisblue.livejournal.com]

That's what I was afraid you might say. *contemplates risking the wrath of the vegan in the house by sacrificing a chicken or two*

[rm.livejournal.com]

That said, if you want my assessment based on the data I have (which is totally not related to actual voter polling response but historical on how voters respond to media factors we track) and what I saw going on in the primaries:

I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.

And the Bradley effect? Nope. If anything there's going to be a reverse Bradley effect in play in historically red states that may flip. That's what reality vs. the exit polls in the primaries seemed to indicate.

[violetisblue.livejournal.com]

I'm not worried about a Bradley effect, it's just there are so many wild cards in this election I don't know what I should expect. But given there's already an anti-Bradley effect at work in Mary's own (white, rural, southern) family, I'm hopeful for a a few red state flips and breaking 300 in the EC.

reverse Bradley effect

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

Agree. I am voting for Obama, but I ain't talking about it.
Tiny heads will explode before this day is done.

I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

308ish?

Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.

[rm.livejournal.com]

If you want me to really call a number? 311

Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

Eleven is ish.
*scurries back*

Re: reverse Bradley effect

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

"I am voting... about it."

[brewsternorth.livejournal.com]

McCain's slice of the statistical probability pie is now so low there's no room to put any red into the graphic design.

*resists temptation to crack "make the pie higher" jokes*

*fails*

Re: I think Obama will win with 300+ in the EC, although not much over 300.

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

Maybe...

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

*sings,badly* "..and we'll have pie-in-the-sky when we die!"

[better-late24.livejournal.com]

My husband has been on that website every day for months! ;)

[cwoolard.livejournal.com]

Karl Rove totally called a landslide for Obama . . .

*head explodes*

[ithinkitisayit.livejournal.com]

You were right! Wikipedia cites a possible reverse Bradley Effect for Obama! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Effect#Barack_Obama_and_a_possible_reverse_Bradley_effect) (was there to look up what a Bradley Effect was ;))

The Morning After:

[cwoolard.livejournal.com]

364, if the still undecided states fall as expected.

For reference, Clinton got 370 in 1992 and GWB got 271 in 2000.

I guessed 349 a week ago.