stock market

[rm]

A couple of months ago I called the market bottom at 6300.

Today we're at 6,594 and Citigroup closed at $1.02. I expect tomorrow to have "modest" losses (80 - 120 points? -- that's modest at this point).

When I called 6300, it seemed drastic. Now I'm questioning if we can hold the 6000 barrier. I'm tempted to stand by 6300, but 5900 would no longer be a surprise. I worry, however, that if we go below 5900, we go into free fall, that there are no more solid psychological barriers in place at that point.

Comments

[imaginarycircus.livejournal.com]

My husband works with an economist and they predicted the market would bottom out close to 6,000. And they said if it goes below that we are going to be in real trouble.

[phaenix-ash.livejournal.com]

you're right, there is a very real potential of freefall. work this week has been nothing less than terrifying. it's also been very, very busy as everyone and their brother freaks the fuck out.

I worry, however, that if we go below 5900, we go into free fall,

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

Oh, Gad! That would be horrendous!
I so hope you're right about it leveling off at 6300.
Go go psychological barriers.

[cozzene.livejournal.com]

I remember telling Miep back in the summer than we would hit 5000. I'm thinking we should start and office pool of sorts.

[wcg.livejournal.com]

I remember when 700 was considered the "support level." It could still happen again.

[minsock.livejournal.com]

Every time there are huge market losses I think of you because when you first called 6300 I was like, dude, seriously, no, because that's more than a 50% drop from a year ago, right?

And now? Now I'm just glad I'm really young and that my job is really secure.

Why is below 5900 free fall?

[rm.livejournal.com]

6000 is a psychological barrier. If we dip below it, we should bounce back in session or the next day, if we don't everyone will do what you just did -- half the market's value has been erased, nothing has any rational value, even people in their early 40s will wonder if they'll live long enough to make their gains back, people will panic.

[hyrkanian.livejournal.com]

Seeing as how it was 12000 not too terribly long ago, seeing it get hit for more than half its value probably would be the catalyst to free fall. It isn't logical, but then again, the market isn't logical IMHO.

[hakeber.livejournal.com]

I once figured it to be 5000, now I'm calling 3000. Hit max on that graph and wind the clock all the way back to the late eighties. That mountain you see is just monopoly money, made up of ponzi schemes. As they are found out, it all falls apart.

And Citi will wind up nationalized.

And GM insolvent.

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

GM is fuckered. Citi, maybe. :(

[violetisblue.livejournal.com]

I have no particular expertise here but I fully expect it to see it hit 5900 and lower. If it gets Larry Kudlow finally to shut the hell up about "mustard seeds" it might almost be worth it.

[julesndairyland.livejournal.com]

I agree whole-heartedly. If we go below that then the psych damage is HUGE. But it may go there. People have talked for years about the need to "re-make America" - I think this is the reality of that. As long as I am not personally destitute I think of it as more of an esoteric exercise. That in and of itself is a big problem.

Luckily my standards of destitute are LOW and my focus on rebuilding communities is high.

[amberite.livejournal.com]

Goddamn, I wish it would just happen already and finish happening and be over with, and then I could get a fucking job!

Ahem, pardon this head of steam, I've been carrying it around for a while.

[abnormal-apathy.livejournal.com]

Yes!

[labellerose.livejournal.com]

I'm with you-6300
There's panic in the cul-de-sacs, I 'm telling you.

[jem-endured-fit.livejournal.com]

Months ago, when the drop first started flirting to go below 10,000 I thought that the market would 'correct' some where around 7,500.

With general contraction and fear of nationalization, I'd now guess the market to bottom 4,500 and settle around 5,000.

BTW - I recognize your username from Terminus. Not exactly sure what our interaction may or may not have been, but your name strikes me as someone that was held very highly.

[rm.livejournal.com]

Thank you! That's very kind. Cons are one big blur for me, because I over schedule and am horible with names and faces, but that sort of hting is always lovely to hear.

This market! I'm home watching financial news because my bathroom ceiling is being repaired, and dude, scary.

[jem-endured-fit.livejournal.com]

It is almost like a reality show gone wrong.

China keeps hinting that recovery is starting. Haven't studied it, but it will be interesting to see the global impact. Hello to future high gas prices!

[stardragonca.livejournal.com]

I think that it's personally important to admit that it is scary, and to recognise that one's fears are reasonable under the circumstances.
But when ginormous numbers of people get scared at once, That's Not Good. And at least half are going to be scared about the wrong things.
Stampedes start because cattle know that it's the cow that gets out first that doesn't get trampled in the stampede.:(

[coco-beans.livejournal.com]

yeah dude... I don't know. right now I'm in a special circumstance where I'm not feeling the market crash so much. We're still putting money into our accounts. I'm considering stopping temporarily, then buying stock/bonds/etc again when we hit real bottom. My hope is that eventually it will go back up and everything I've bought now will go up and have been worth the effort/risk.
unfortunately.... I feel this foreboding. I'm sure I'll dream of a big LED "4000" sign.

[vashtan.livejournal.com]

I talked to a hedgie who said it's getting "much worse" and he's goin to look at undervalued companies (taking the private) mid- to end 2009. The guy has EUR 1bn under management and is "just keeping his powder dry". Greed will in out against fear. The question is, when.

[bodlon.livejournal.com]

When I became a homeowner in order to a) house my 60-something mother who retired without a retirement plan, and b) house myself and my partner (who at the time had not established himself in a stable, full-time job), I had a little switch installed in my brain.

It was a matter of survival.

There is a point that, if something looks sufficiently disastrous, my "Oh shit!" breaker trips, and I can no longer feel fear because fear feels pointless, and I start to focus intensely on immediate things that can be handled.

I think you just tripped that breaker. My filing and office organizing productivity is about to go through the roof.

[rm.livejournal.com]

Working in education and, assuming you don't own stock, you're relatively safe (education is one of the only sectors to have expeirenced growth in the last reporting period), but I think things are about to get irrational.